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Figure 1

SHC (percentage of current distribution) in 2080, by IPCC scenarios (A2 and B1), climate dataset (TRAD and CO boxes) and chorotype (ALPine, BOReal, BOReo-ALPine, temperate/pan-EURopean and MEDiterranean), with () unlimited migration or () no migration. (i)(ii) Average values per species of all the model/evaluation method combinations for A2 and B1, respectively; white boxes, TRAD; grey boxes, CO. (iii) SHC difference between the two datasets; light grey boxes, A2; dark grey boxes, B1. ((iii),(iii)) The SHC difference between the two sets of climate data. Differences between pairs of boxes were evaluated with a Wilcoxon rank sum test. (< 0.01, < 0.05 and < 0.1.)

View this table:
Table 1

SHC (percentage of current distribution) for six common European tree species (representing three chorotypes: ALPine; temperate/pan-EURopean; and MEDiterranean), per scenario and climate dataset. (The values are the mean and standard deviation for all models (six) and evaluation methods (two), weighted by the models' AUC scores. For all other species, see appendix II in the electronic supplementary material.)

The consensus projections of potential habitats in 2080 under scenario A2 ( figure 2 ) show a possible expansion of the Quercus ilex across part of western Europe with the new water availability proxies. For Fagus sylvatica , the difference is smaller but the eastern and western edges of the habitat range show higher presence probabilities.

Figure 2

Future habitat projections for and (typical of EUR and MED, respectively) by 2080, for scenario A2. These are ensemble forecasts, that is, weighted averages of the presence/absence predictions from all the combinations (six models×two thresholds), which show the presence likelihood. A value of 1 means all models predicted a presence, while 0 means all predicted an absence. To a certain extent, intermediate values represent the level of agreement across models, though they are also influenced by the weights. See electronic supplementary material for a colour version.

4. Discussion

Our results show marked differences in model projections of tree species habitats when vegetation and CO effects on water availability are used instead of traditional proxies. These differences are generally larger than those between the two climate change scenarios, at least for 2080. The boxplots by chorotype with unlimited migration ( Modal Scarf Turns FFCO005 by VIDA VIDA WZnIark
) show that including CO effects is particularly important when modelling the habitat of alpine and boreo-alpine species. This remains true when no migration is assumed ( figure 1 ), despite values changing drastically from a habitat increase to a large decrease, especially for alpine species. This difference is due to new suitable habitats appearing in regions which species cannot colonize due to migration constraints (e.g. Scandinavia for alpine species). Although Mediterranean and temperate species seem less sensitive to the new input variables, there can still be large changes in the potential habitat for some species, e.g. (MED; figure 2 ). The outcome of including vegetation and CO in the water availability calculation depends on the net effect of changes in stomatal conductance and vegetation structure, particularly leaf area. Both are affected by climate and CO changes ( Hickler . submitted ). Stomatal closing has a stronger effect in warm dry climates where transpiration is high and water availability is low ( Morales . 2007 ). Leaf area generally increases in cold areas as growing seasons lengthen and CO rises, but in some Mediterranean areas, it decreases due to reduced water availability ( Left Ear Lets Rock Amour Ear Cuff Atelier Paulin yNYsqDoVdm
; Morales . 2007 ; Hickler . submitted ).

We conclude that the effects of changes in vegetation and CO should be considered when modelling the future potential habitats of plant species. Further research should determine more precisely which species or species types are most sensitive to these effects and how these may vary over time and investigate other direct physiological effects of CO changes. It would also be desirable to include land-use changes in ecosystem models to represent vegetation structure effects more realistically.

Acknowledgments

This study was funded through the European Union sixth framework project MACIS (044399-SSPI). T.H., M.T.S., M.B.A., O.S. and W.T. acknowledge support from the EU sixth framework project ALARM (GOCE-CT-2003-506675).

Footnotes

Electronic supplementary material is available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2008.0105 or via http://journals.royalsociety.org .

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